Can you imagine a world without a cup of coffee ? There are multiple threats to coffee cultivation that put it at risk of extinction. In this article, we'll tell you what those threats are and how they're affecting the production of this noble crop.
Coffee consumption has doubled from 1980 to 2016, by 4.6 billion kilos, for a total of 9.5 billion kilos of coffee worldwide; an increase of 46% in just 36 years; and it continues to rise.
However, coffee, like any other species on planet Earth, is at risk of extinction, and it's not just dinosaurs that have become extinct in this world.
It is said that this drink could disappear from the diet, because 60% of wild coffee species are in extinction, and it is assured that it corresponds to one of the highest probability rates for a plant.
And this is because of the one hundred and twenty-four (124) species of known wild coffee, according to the World Coffee Organization (IMC), seventy-five (75) of them are in danger of extinction, even though the Arabica and Robusta varieties are the ones that are marketed at 60% and 40%, respectively, throughout the world.
Reduction of available land
The reduction in available land has become one of the threats, especially in the commercial sphere. In Ethiopia, one of the countries that produces the largest amount of coffee in the world, it is estimated that the planted area could be reduced by 60%.
Part of this reduction in coffee-growing areas is associated with climate change.
Climate Change
The susceptibility of coffee production to extreme climates is one of the factors that is affecting it.
There are countries where global warming is said to be impacting production, causing significant difficulties in recent years. There are even reports of increasing crop losses associated with prolonged droughts.
This is due to the reduction in rainfall below the general average, which has led to crops suffering from water stress due to extreme droughts.
Although a temporary drought cannot be immediately associated with climate change, the continuation of such events, prolonged and extreme, makes it a threat that must be addressed.
Furthermore, low rainfall, combined with high temperatures, severely affects plantations. In Brazil, it is estimated to have increased by 3%, resulting in lower yields, but not only that, it has also impacted the production of more bitter coffee.
Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of coffee beans, faced its worst drought, resulting in a brief coffee production deficit of 218 million kilos compared to increased daily consumption in recent years.
Therefore, it is argued that climate change, through the combination of rising temperatures across the planet and prolonged droughts, is expected to bring greater and more acute impacts due to increased evaporation and drier soils.
Therefore, it is argued that coffee availability will increasingly depend on climate change. Considering that temperatures have risen by up to 1% worldwide and rainfall has decreased by 15% since the 1980s, countless coffee farmers have lost their crops as a result. It is even estimated that most of these farmers could lose their coffee plantations by 2050.
For example, in Ethiopia, Africa's largest coffee exporter, where the threat could lead to a reduction of up to 60% of its coffee plantations, the reality is that it is linked to rising temperatures, estimated at 4°C, accompanied by high carbon dioxide emissions projected until the end of this century.
Other threats
Among other threats to coffee cultivation, and therefore to the supply and consumption of the beverage, are plant diseases and pests, which are also contributing factors due to the more rapid spread of coffee; it is even suggested that there is a shortage of labor to tend the crops.
Future estimates
By 2050, the area planted to coffee crops worldwide is estimated to decrease by 50%, according to the Australian Climate Change Institute, considering that there are currently around 11 billion hectares planted.
Experts on the subject indicate and suggest that, to maintain current production and consumption, half of the currently established plantations will have to harvest 2.5 times more coffee to meet demand, especially future demand.
Therefore, it is necessary for the coffee sector to take measures for the necessary mitigations.
Meanwhile, the reduction in coffee production is primarily associated with high-quality coffee-growing areas. Meanwhile, the process of selecting plants that can tolerate drought conditions, based on the genome of the Arabica coffee species, is being accelerated; and a breeding program is being developed to design "new varieties" that are more resistant to climate change.
And finally, the combined effects of climate change and other threats will drive drastic changes in the coffee industry, even leading to the exploration of new coffee-producing regions around the world. These regions may become active players in the coffee sector, with the United States, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and the Andes being some of the most favored areas.
But this reality isn't something that will happen overnight, and by then, caffeine lovers could face rising prices and declining quality at their favorite coffee shops. So, for now, we can continue to count on our daily cup of coffee.