At The Coffee Shop, we already know that coffee is one of the most important commodities traded globally and that it contributes substantially to the livelihoods and production of millions of small farmers around the world. But how can climate change directly affect our favorite beverage? That's why, with this article, we want to tell you about the relationship between the coffee industry and climate change.
The crop is climate-sensitive; coffee is likely to be highly susceptible to climate change. We explored evidence from published academic papers on the influence of climate change and variability, specifically drought, on coffee production. Current research has reported several primarily negative impacts, including decreases in coffee yield, loss of optimal coffee-growing areas with significant impacts in major coffee-producing countries, and increases in the distribution of pests and diseases that indirectly influence coffee cultivation. Current research has also identified positive effects of climate change, such as increases in coffee-producing niches, particularly in higher-altitude areas. However, whether these gains could offset losses in other production areas requires further investigation.
Temperature and rainfall conditions are the main drivers when it comes to yield, i.e., production. In this regard, the two main species, Arabica and Robusta, which together account for around 99% of global production, have different requirements. Arabica coffee evolved in the cool, shaded environment of the Ethiopian highland forests, where there is a single dry season coinciding with the "winter" months. The optimal temperature range is between 15° and 24°C. Much higher temperatures tend to negatively impact both yield and quality. Rainfall requirements range between 1,500 and 2,000 mm per year, although the use of irrigation now allows Arabica to be grown also in areas with insufficient rainfall.
The life cycle of the coffee plant.
To better understand how climate change is affecting coffee plants, you must first understand the role climate plays in a plant's life cycle.
Every biological change that takes place in a plant (such as its flowering, growth, and ripening stages) is affected by parameters including temperature, humidity, and light. How a plant responds to these parameters determines its seasonal life cycle.
In the past, natural responses to stimuli were more or less predictable because climatic conditions were also predictable. However, drastic changes have disrupted this program, causing expected changes to occur unpredictably.
Possible effects of climate change on coffee production
Quality
As temperature increases, coffee ripens more quickly, leading to a decrease in inherent quality. This claim is supported by the fact that low-grown Arabica from tropical areas with higher temperatures generally exhibits less "quality" in the cup compared to the same coffee grown at higher altitudes.
Performance
If climatic events such as excessively high temperatures occur during sensitive periods of the crop's life, for example, during flowering or fruit set, yields will be negatively affected, particularly if accompanied by reduced rainfall.
Pests and diseases
Higher temperatures will not only favor the proliferation of certain pests and diseases, but will also cause them to spread to regions where they were not normally present. Research suggests that the incidence of pests and diseases such as coffee borer, leaf miner, nematodes, coffee rust, and others will increase as future temperatures rise. The resulting need for increased control will make coffee production more complicated and more expensive.
Irrigation
Areas that do not currently require this may do so in the future due to increased evaporation, which reduces soil moisture content. Other areas may experience increases in both precipitation and variability.
As already mentioned, complexity and uncertainty make precision difficult. However, there is a real possibility that fewer parts of the world will be suitable for growing coffee. If so, the already evident growth in production concentration could become even more pronounced. This could make global production more prone to large fluctuations, as any serious disruption to the output of one major producer would drastically reduce global output. Second, the cost of production will increase more than would have been the case without global warming, and third, competition from other crops for available arable land may increase.
Just as we love coffee , we love the planet, so it's essential to understand that caring for it also means caring for the things we need to continue existing. We can see how this can directly affect us in a concrete example, like our morning cups of coffee. We can start there and ask ourselves what we can do.